美国财长访谈录:为什么美国股市波动越来越大?产量持平意味着什么? 2019-06-20

    在星期二与彭博社的采访中,美国财长Donald Mnuchin就近期美国股市的波动性、美国国债的平抑收益率曲线以及特朗普减税等问题发表了自己的看法。

    Mnuchin先生将近期股市波动归咎于高频交易和沃克尔规则,但仍强调美国国债收益率曲线“不令人担忧”,而对中产阶级的减税则不是他当前工作的重点。他计划在2020年或更长时间内继续任职。

    股票市场的波动部分是由于高频交易和沃克尔原理。

    Mnuchin将近期股市波动归咎于高频交易和沃克尔规则,并表示他计划通过跨部门机构审查市场结构。

    “在很长一段时间内,市场反映了各种不同的经济成分,但现在在正常交易日有500个波动,”他说。它们中的许多都与市场结构有关,这是我们必须研究的。

    Mnuchin拒绝就股市动荡的其他可能原因发表评论,他表示,在美联储会议召开之际,他不想对经济或市场发表评论。

    Mnuchin说,他将要求他的金融稳定监管委员会(FSOC)研究股市的波动性。虽然他没有“预见”股市在股市评估完成前剧烈波动的原因,但他说:“在我看来,波动很大程度上是由于市场结构。部分原因是高频交易和沃克尔规则的结合。

    沃克尔的规定禁止银行自营交易,将自贸与商业银行业务分开,也就是说,禁止银行在联邦存款保险中使用存款来进行自我交易,投资对冲基金或私人股本基金。

    美国国债的平收益率曲线并不意味着经济陷入困境。

    市场担心美国债券收益率的持平甚至颠倒,但姆努钦仍然“不担心”。

    Mr. Mnuchin refutes the economic implications of a flat yield curve, which some investors see as a harbinger of the U.S. recession. "I dont think the yield curve at this point is necessarily a sufficient predictor of future economic problems," he said.

    This is not the first time that Mnuchin has expressed his views on the yield curve of U.S. Treasuries.

    In October of this year, the yield curve of U.S. Treasury bonds also fluctuated sharply during the sharp fall of U.S. stocks. Mnuchin当时表示,仍有美国国债的大量需求和市场预期收益率曲线恢复正常。

    月,Mnuchin先生告诉CNBC,平坦的收益率曲线是“非常满意”,美国政府扩大长期国债以弥补预算赤字扩大。

    他还表示,他不认为扁平化的国债收益率曲线可以作为经济增长的领先指标,但只是一种市场现象。”收益曲线的形状与我无关。What we need to focus on is the countrys economic growth. We are discussing the agenda for creating economic growth.

    芬妮和弗雷迪的私有化

    房利美和弗雷迪Mac(Fannie和弗雷迪)已经还清了债务,联邦政府继续为政府赚钱,这已成为一个政府宝槽。

    Political and business circles have long criticized this, especially investors who own Fannie and Freddie shares. They believe that Fannie and Freddie should be freed from government control and the whole market should be opened to private capital. But there has been little progress from Barack Obama to Trump.

    "The Treasury wants to let go, too, but I tend to get bipartisan legislative support from Congress," he said, throwing the pot to Congress.

    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), which triggered the 2008 financial crisis, became "state-owned enterprises" after receiving $191.4 billion in federal aid (after 2012, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac must surrender their quarterly profits to the Treasury).

    Now Fannie and Freddie have paid back $279.7 billion, the U.S. Treasury has made a net profit of $88.3 billion, and Fannie and Freddie are still handing over profits to the Treasury.

    Fannie Mae ranked 21st with $112.39 billion in revenue and $2.46 billion in profit on the 2008 Fortune 500 list. 弗雷迪麦克排名第三十八,746亿8000万美元和56亿2000万美元的利润收入。

    Is Trump Tax Reduction 2.0 still available?

    Before the mid-term elections, President Trump had warned voters that the Democratstax cut of 2.0 might not be there. Now that the Democratic Party controls the House of Representatives, Trump is having a tough time. 特朗普从来没有提到减税了…

    Mnuchin说,特朗普政府搁置中产阶层减税。”我不想评论是否减税(2)是不是真的。现在我想说,我们有其他重要的事情要做。“政府想与国会合作,使“小的技术修正”的减税法2017。

    在中期选举之前,特朗普把政策的“胡萝卜”,强调新的减税的目的不是帮助企业,而是帮助中产阶级,这将给中产阶级家庭的另一个减税10%。Trump said at the time that his government was studying tax cuts before the mid-term elections in November, but the bill could only be put to Congress for a vote after the elections. 但是共和党人还是失去了众议院。

    特朗普说,美元走强伤害了Mnuchin先生,称这是美国经济的一种肯定。

    美元指数继续上升,上升到97.71,上星期五,2017年6月以来的最高水平。

    虽然特朗普的“老板”不喜欢强势美元,他认为这将导致美国的缺点。

    Mr. Mnuchin cant speak against Trump publicly, but he still supports the strong dollar in a euphemistic way. 他说,美元的强势是为美国经济的“信任票”。”Part of the reason for the strength of the dollar is peoples perception that the U.S. economy (growth) and the U.S. economy are unique in the world."

    财政赤字和预算

    Mnuchin先生不膨胀的财政赤字,说民主党不能在预算近1兆美元,其“私欲”。

    两个月前,特朗普政府表示,联邦预算赤字升至由于在政府支出飙升FY2018六年来的最高水平。上周,美国财政部报告说,十一月的预算赤字是有记录以来最大的,达到了2049亿美元,远远超过1390亿美元,去年同期的105亿,双收入。

    Now, as the White House and Congress confront a $5 billion wall-building budget, Trump has threatened to shut down the government in order to build the wall, but Democrats have shown no weakness, less than a week before the government closes.

    姆钦愿意留在办公室直到2020大选

    Mnuchin先生说,他计划继续财政部长直到2020大选。If President Trump succeeded in his re-election campaign and hoped he would remain in office, he would seriously consider that.

    中期选举后,有媒体称,特朗普将被解雇,因为烦恼,Mnuchin先生提名的鲍威尔,他坚持提高利率,美联储主席。后来,有消息说,他将对员工新的白宫首席候选人,但Mnuchin听从了他的劝告,依然在财政部。

    It also shows that Mnuchin has been as unstable as the US stock market in recent months.

    我们都知道,特朗普政府离职率一直很高。在过去的两年中,各部门已经基本上改变了许多人。只有少数高级管理人员,如财政部长Mnuchin、国防部长马蒂斯和商务部长罗斯留任。This also shows that these people are the core and most powerful members of Trump team.

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